The Medicines Patent Pool Publishes Peer-Reviewed Paper on Forecasting Antiretrovirals in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)
14 October 2016
The Medicines Patent Pool and the World Health Organization’s joint work to forecast the use of antiretrovirals in low- and middle-income countries has been published in peer-reviewed journal PLOS ONE. The paper, which appeared online on October 13, discusses the MPP-WHO forecast of the demand of HIV medicines in developing countries through 2024. Among other analyses, the paper confirms that dolutegravir (DTG), licensed to the MPP from ViiV Healthcare, will be a major player among antiretroviral treatment regimens by 2025, while tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), licensed to the MPP from Gilead Sciences, will witness an increasing market share. Existing ARVs will continue to play a crucial role and their continued supply is critical to sustain international scale-up targets.
The MPP has been forecasting ARV use for more than four years, and in collaboration with the WHO for more than two years. These forecasts have provided broad support to the HIV community and helped guide MPP industry partners in planning their access strategies as well as capacity planning and prioritisation. Forecasts also assist policymakers, procurement agencies, regulatory agencies and other public health stakeholders planning and preparing their policies.
The article’s principal authors include MPP’s business development director Sandeep Juneja and business development manager Aastha Gupta, along with WHO experts Meg Doherty, Daniel Low-Beer, Marco Vitoria, Vincent Habiyambere and Boniface Dongmo Nguimfack.
